In today’s economy, inflation is becoming a major concern for the average American. Prices keep rising, and wages have not kept up, making it increasingly difficult to make ends meet. The dollars that were worked for and saved up are becoming less valuable. Precious metals like gold and silver have historically served as hedges against inflation, as we have mentioned before, and here’s why.

Understanding Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, decreasing the purchasing power of currency. When inflation is high, each unit of currency (for example the dollar) buys fewer goods and services. Your dollars do not have intrinsic value, so they are only as valuable as their purchasing power at any given time. This is where precious metals enter the conversation.

Intrinsic Value and Scarcity

Precious metals are inherently valuable due to their scarcity and unique properties. Unlike paper currency, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, the supply of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium is limited. It is impossible to create more gold or more silver than already exists. This intrinsic value means that, even when the value of currency decreases, the value of precious metals often remains stable or even increases. As more money is printed, the price of gold and silver will go up as it takes more dollars to buy these precious metals. This means, that if you own gold and silver, as the dollar inflates, your precious metals maintain or even grow in value.

Historical Performance vs Inflation

This makes sense from a logical perspective, but history has also backed up this claim. Gold and other precious metals have performed well during periods of high inflation. For instance, during the 1970s, when inflation rates in the U.S. soared, gold prices experienced a significant surge. In 1971, Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard meaning it was no longer backed by precious metals. Gold jumped from $35 pre ounce to $850 per ounce between 1971 and 1980. Investors turned to gold to preserve their wealth, and the price of gold skyrocketed.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Not only do precious metals maintain their value during inflationary periods, they can often grow in value due to supply and demand. The demand for precious metals typically increases during inflationary periods as people seek to preserve their wealth. Investors seek to protect their assets by purchasing metals, which then leads to higher prices. Additionally, the supply of precious metals cannot be ramped up quickly, ensuring their value remains robust.

Non-Correlated Assets

Precious metals often move independently of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. During periods of economic instability, when traditional investments might underperform, precious metals can provide a safe haven. This is why they are called “safe-haven assets”. This non-correlation makes them an effective tool for diversification and risk management.

Conclusion

We believe in the enduring value of precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Their intrinsic value, historical performance, and non-correlation with other asset classes make them invaluable tools for preserving wealth during periods of high inflation. As investors seek stability in uncertain times, precious metals remain a reliable option.

For more on inflation, read our article on inflation here: https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/inflation-the-hidden-tax/

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I do not have a crystal ball, but these predictions are the distillation of everything I have read and everyone I have spoken with in and outside of the industry.

MORTGAGES

Mortgage rates will fall below 6% for credit scores above 750.  Marginal credit will see interest rates around 6.5%

PREDICT MORE INFLATION

Real inflation (not the fake, self-serving government numbers) will outstrip wage growth.  The Low and middle income households will get poorer in real terms

INCOMING LAYOFFS

I am reading predictions showing 10% layoffs in big and small companies everywhere (Google, Citi, UPS).  Don’t believe unemployment numbers.  I have clients and acquaintances who have applied for a multitude of jobs to no avail.  AI and robotics are going to wipe out many professions – blue and white collar.  Young people should consider the trades (plumber, electrician, medical) where there will most likely always be a need.

PREDICT MORE CONSUMER SPENDING

Spending went crazy during the plandemic, and predictions show it is not slowing down.  Consumer debt is between $1-$1.4 TRILLION dollars.  Average credit card interest rate stands at 21.2%.  Delinquencies are at all-time highs.  Bankruptcies are on the rise.  19% of all car loan/lease monthly payments are over $1,000.  Average car loan term is 5.5 years.  62% of new car loans are being denied.  Mortgage application denials are on the rise.  Here in south Florida, the Canadians didn’t come down this year as they always do – they couldn’t afford it due to prices and exchange rate.

DE-DOLLARIZATION

The dollar is continuing to decline in prominence.  What country wants to hold debt of a nation that is 135% of GDP and dilutes (prints) at will?  BRICS and prospective BRICS countries want an alternative.  The U.S. uses the dollar as a weapon, most recently illustrated by forbidding Russia to use the SWIFT international payments system.  Russia is showing the world that they don’t need dollars – they can do direct currency swaps with the recipients of their oil and store their reserves in gold and bitcoin.

MORE WAR

Predictions show wars, proxy wars and new wars will increase.  Ukraine will eventually have to acquiesce, at least partially.  The U.S. and Israel will bomb Iran while the international community stands by with token support – allowing us to use money we don’t have and continue to put our soldiers in harms way.  China will go into Taiwan – maybe not this year – but they will.  One of these days someone will use a nuclear device.

PREDICTIONS ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Prediction show that we will continue to drown in illegal immigrants. We have terrorists within our country planning single and/or significant attacks.  We will have another 9-11 equivalent instance.  Chemical, Cyber, bombing or even a dirty nuclear device.  Immigrants will be in every city in the United States as they spread out.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Here are some possibilities:  Either Trump or Biden don’t make it to election day.  Haley is hanging on in case Trump goes to jail or dies prematurely.  Newsome and Michelle Obama are in the wings in case Biden completely falters or dies prematurely.  Jail, complete falter or premature death for Trump or Biden – desperate times, desperate measures.  In the end, as with the 2020 election, the end justifies the means.  How about a national cyber event just before the election, or covid 2.0, or use your imagination, could result in suspension of the election and martial law.

FED PIVOT

It’s an election year.  “It’s the economy stupid”.  Predictions show rates will come down.   Liquidity will be pumped into the system which will have to flow somewhere.  The stock market and home prices will rise.  Many people will “feel” richer.  Fed rate pivots typically are followed by a recession 6-12 months later.  They will juice the economy and put lipstick on the pig.

This list isn’t exhaustive, and my readers are largely aware of all of these items already.  What to do?

1. Get out of debt except for your mortgage provided you have equity in your home
2. Have 3-6 months cash at home.  Many of the black swan events I have cited could result in bank closures / bank holidays and non-functioning ATM machines
3. Get 5% or more of network in physical gold/silver/platinum – purchases are still largely unreportable, and that WILL change
4. If you invest in the stock market, the NASDAQ and S&P should do well for the next 12 months.  Just buy the indexes – don’t stock pick
5. Dip your toe in bitcoin.  Educate yourself on YouTube.
6. Buy land other than your principal residence.
7. Read your Bible or Torah – it will reassure you that God is fully in control even if we don’t understand and it makes no sense.  His ways are not our ways.

John

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