Fisher Precious Metals https://fisherpreciousmetals.com Family Owned and 5 Star Client Rated Gold Dealer Thu, 14 Dec 2017 14:57:14 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Favicon-150x150.png Fisher Precious Metals https://fisherpreciousmetals.com 32 32 Platinum or Gold – Where Will You Profit Most? https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/platinum-gold-will-profit/ Mon, 13 Nov 2017 19:23:01 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10787 Platinum or Gold – Where Will You Profit Most? We consistently get the questions, “Should I buy Platinum or Gold right now?  Which has greater price growth potential?” While we expect precious metals price gains, even sizable gains in gold, silver and platinum over the next several

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Platinum or Gold – Where Will You Profit Most?
We consistently get the questions, “Should I buy Platinum or Gold right now?  Which has greater price growth potential?”
While we expect precious metals price gains, even sizable gains in gold, silver and platinum over the next several years, platinum is uniquely poised to appreciate substantially.  See the following chart:

 

Platinum and Gold Chart

 

This chart shows the platinum price as a percentage of the gold price.  Currently platinum trades at 73% of the gold price – $972 vs. $1,274.  Platinum has not traded at such a discount to gold since 1982.  In 1982, platinum rose until it was 239% of gold or more than twice the gold price.  That means if gold didn’t increase a dime and platinum rose the same 239%, platinum would be over $3,000.  If gold rises, as we expect it to, then platinum may rise even more.
The whole purpose of this article is to point out how significantly platinum is undervalued. Typically platinum trades above the price of gold, or a ratio greater than 1:1 (above the aqua blue line).
I personally am holding more platinum that I ever have before and swapped some of my gold to do so.  You may consider doing the same.

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People Believed Everything was Going to be Great…Always https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/people-believed-everything-going-great-always/ Wed, 01 Nov 2017 21:04:01 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10778 People Believed Everything was Going to be Great…Always In 1928 people believed everything was going to be great…always.  And once again, both on Main Street and Wall Street, market participants are overwhelmingly confident that the great times are here to stay….forever.  As proven by the Consumer Confidence

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People Believed Everything was Going to be Great…Always

In 1928 people believed everything was going to be great…always.  And once again, both on Main Street and Wall Street, market participants are overwhelmingly confident that the great times are here to stay….forever.  As proven by the Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost 17 years to 125.9.  Investors everywhere are jubilant about their overall portfolio returns.  “The stock market has a long way to go and shows no sign of stopping its upward trend!  We are not at risk of another stock market crash!”

But be forewarned, the U.S. stock market’s latest run to all-time highs could be giving investors a false sense of security.  As the stock market keeps moving higher, valuations have reached an ominous level.  The only time valuations were higher was around the time of the stock market crash and beginning of the Great Depression in 1929 and during the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, according to the model formulated by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.

Financial leaders and experts are shooting off warning signals, but no one seems to pay any heed:

    • The chairman, Lloyd Blankfein, of most influential global investment bank Goldman Sachs, said that what he sees in the market “unnerves” him.
    • Christopher Harvey, the head of equity strategy for Wells Fargo Bank said that “We are not bullish on the stock market.”
    • Oaktree Capital Management founder Howard Marks noted that “asset prices are high across the board.”
    • More than eight years into this bull market, it’s time to “trim some of those profits and rebalance,” Russell’s chief market strategist Stephen Wood told CNBC.
    • The chief investment strategist for Raymond James, Jeff Saut stated, ““There just is not much ‘upside energy’ right here,””

There is nothing new and unique about this. Investors are valuing stocks through the proverbial “rose colored glasses”.  It happens about every 15 to 30 years, because that is the extent of overall “financial memory”, and a new set of “market believers” come forth.

Here is an excerpt from the PBS documentary on the stock market crash of 1929.  As we read through it, it was almost eerie to read about the overall consumer sentiment right before the crash.

…people believed that everything was going to be great always, always. There was a feeling of optimism in the air that you cannot even describe today.”

“There was great hope. America came out of World War I with the economy intact. We were the only strong country in the world. The dollar was king. We had a very popular president in the middle of the decade, Calvin Coolidge, and an even more popular one elected in 1928, Herbert Hoover. So things looked pretty good.”

“The economy was changing in this new America. It was the dawn of the consumer revolution. New inventions, mass marketing, factories turning out amazing products like radios, rayon, air conditioners, underarm deodorant…One of the most wondrous inventions of the age was consumer credit. Before 1920, the average worker couldn’t borrow money. By 1929, “buy now, pay later” had become a way of life.”

“Wall Street got the credit for this prosperity and Wall Street was dominated by just a small group of wealthy men. Rarely in the history of this nation had so much raw power been concentrated in the hands of a few businessmen…”

“One of the most common tactics was to manipulate the price of a particular stock, a stock like Radio Corporation of America…Wealthy investors would pool their money in a secret agreement to buy a stock, inflate its price and then sell it to an unsuspecting public. Most stocks in the 1920s were regularly manipulated by insiders ”

“I would say that practically all the financial journals were on the take. This includes reporters for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Herald-Tribune, you name it. So if you were a pool operator, you’d call your friend at The Times and say, “Look, Charlie, there’s an envelope waiting for you here and we think that perhaps you should write something nice about RCA.” And Charlie would write something nice about RCA. A publicity man called A. Newton Plummer had canceled checks from practically every major journalist in New York City… Then, they would begin to — what was called “painting the tape” and they would make the stock look exciting. They would trade among themselves and you’d see these big prints on RCA and people will say, “Oh, it looks as though that stock is being accumulated. Now, if they are behind it, you want to join them, so you go out and you buy stock also. Now, what’s happening is the stock goes from 10 to 15 to 20 and now, it’s at 20 and you start buying, other people start buying at 30, 40. The original group, the pool, they’ve stopped buying. They’re selling you the stock. It’s now 50 and they’re out of it. And what happens, of course, is the stock collapses.”

“The pools were a little like musical chairs. When the music stopped, somebody owned the stocks and those were the sufferers. If small investors suffered, they would soon be back for more. They knew the game was rigged, but maybe next time, they could beat the system. Wall Street had its critics, among them economist Roger Babson. He questioned the boom and was accused of lack of patriotism, of selling America short.”

“Roger Babson warned of the speculation and said, “There’s going to be a crash and the aftermath is going to be quite terrible.” And people jumped on Babson from all around for saying such a thing, so that people who were cautious about their personal reputation, who did not want to call down on themselves a lot of calumny, kept quiet.”

“Politicians came and went, but in the 20s, the businessman was king.”

“With everyone trying to borrow money to cover the falling value of their stocks, there was a credit crunch. Interest rates soared. At 20 percent, few people could afford to borrow more money. The boom was about to collapse like a house of cards.”

“…the National City Bank would provide $25 million of credit…immediately, the credit crisis was alleviated. In fact, within the next 24 hours, call money went from 20 percent to eight percent and that stopped the panic, then, in March [1929]”

“Everything was not fine that spring with the American economy. It was showing ominous signs of trouble. Steel production was declining. The construction industry was sluggish. Car sales dropped. Customers were getting harder to find. And because of easy credit, many people were deeply in debt. Large sections of the population were poor and getting poorer.”

“Just as Wall Street had reflected a steady growth in the economy throughout most of the 20s, it would seem that now the market should reflect the economic slowdown. Instead, it soared to record heights. Stock prices no longer had anything to do with company profits, the economy or anything else. The speculative boom had acquired a momentum of its own.”

“It was this nature of mass illusion. Prices were going up, people bought. That forced prices up further, that brought in more people. And eventually, the process becomes self-perpetuating. Every increase brings in more people convinced of their God-given right to get rich.”

“The 20s was a decade of all sorts of fast money schemes. Three years earlier, everyone was buying Florida real estate. As prices of land skyrocketed, more people jumped in, hoping to make a killing. Then, overnight, the boom turned to bust and investors lost everything.”

“On September 5th, economist Roger Babson gave a speech to a group of businessmen. ‘Sooner or later, a crash is coming and it may be terrific.’ He’d been saying the same thing for two years, but now, for some reason, investors were listening. The market took a severe dip. They called it the “Babson Break.” The next day, prices stabilized, but several days later, they began to drift lower. Though investors had no way of knowing it, the collapse had already begun.”

“…the market fluctuated wildly up and down. On September 12th, prices dropped ten percent. They dipped sharply again on the 20th. Stock markets around the world were falling, too. Then, on September 25th, the market suddenly rallied.”

“Reuben L. Cain, Stock Salesman, 1929: I remember well that I thought, “Why is this doing this?” And then I thought, “Well, I’m new here and these people” — like every day in the paper, Charlie Mitchell would have something to say, the J.P. Morgan people would have something to say about how good things were — and I thought, “Well, they know a lot more about this market than I do. I’m fairly new here and I really can’t see why it’s going up.” But then, when they say it can’t go down or if it does go down today, it’ll go back tomorrow, you think, “Well, they really are like God. They know it all and it must be the way it’s going because they say so.”

“As the market floundered, financial leaders were as optimistic as ever, more so. Just five days before the crash, Thomas Lamont, acting head of the highly conservative Morgan Bank, wrote a letter to President Hoover. “The future appears brilliant. Our securities are the most desirable in the world.”

“Practically every business leader in American and banker, right around the time of 1929, was saying how wonderful things were and the economy had only one way to go and that was up.”

“There came a Wednesday, October 23rd, when the market was a little shaky, weak. And whether this caused some spread of pessimism, one doesn’t know. It certainly led a lot of people to think they should get out. And so, Thursday, October the 24th — the first Black Thursday — the market, beginning in the morning, took a terrific tumble. The market opened in an absolutely free fall and some people couldn’t even get any bids for their shares and it was wild panic. And an ugly crowd gathered outside the stock exchange and it was described as making weird and threatening noises. It was, indeed, one of the worst days that had ever been seen down there.”

“There was a glimmer of hope on Black Thursday…About 12:30, there was an announcement that this group of bankers would make available a very substantial sum to ease the credit stringency and support the market. And right after that, Dick Whitney made his famous walk across the floor of the New York Stock Exchange…. At 1:30 in the afternoon, at the height of the panic, he strolled across the floor and in a loud, clear voice, ordered 10,000 shares of U.S. Steel at a price considerably higher than the last bid. He then went from post to post, shouting buy orders for key stocks.”

“And sure enough, this seemed to be evidence that the bankers had moved in to end the panic. And they did end it for that day. The market then stabilized and even went up.”

“But Monday was not good. Apparently, people had thought about things over the weekend, over Sunday, and decided maybe they might be safer to get out. And then came the real crash, which was on Tuesday, when the market went down and down and down, without seeming limit…Morgan’s bankers could no longer stem the tide. It was like trying to stop Niagara Falls. Everyone wanted to sell.”

“In brokers’ offices across the country, the small investors — the tailors, the grocers, the secretaries — stared at the moving ticker in numb silence. Hope of an easy retirement, the new home, their children’s education, everything was gone.”

“At the end of 1929, as they celebrated New Year’s Eve, all that lay in the future. Nobody knew that the Great Depression was coming — unemployment, bread lines, bank failures — this was unimaginable. But the bubble had burst. Gone was that innocent optimism, the confidence, the illusion of wealth without work. One era had ended. They toasted the coming of the 30s, but somewhere, deep down, they knew the party was over.”

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RCM Statement on Fake Gold Wafer – Not Ours https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/rcm-statement-fake-gold-wafer/ Wed, 01 Nov 2017 02:43:17 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10773 RCM Statement on Fake Gold Wafer – Not Ours You should never believe that the Royal Canadian Mint produced fake gold bars. These are professional counterfeiters making these gold bars, and they are improving in their manufacturing skills and targeting the most reputable sovereign mints in the

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RCM Statement on Fake Gold Wafer – Not Ours

You should never believe that the Royal Canadian Mint produced fake gold bars. These are professional counterfeiters making these gold bars, and they are improving in their manufacturing skills and targeting the most reputable sovereign mints in the world.

Frankly, the Royal Canadian Mint is farther ahead of most sovereign mints in the fight against counterfeits with their Bullion DNA anti-counterfeiting technology that they have successfully incorporated in the minting process for the gold and silver Canadian Maple Leaf coins. We are an Authorized Bullion DNA dealer for the mint, and we promote Canadian Maple Leaf coins because of their purity, quality manufacturing and Bullion DNA technology.

Here is the Royal Canadian Mint’s press release to dealers regarding the fake gold bar that was sold at the Royal Bank of Canada:

STATEMENT BY THE ROYAL CANADIAN MINT

OTTAWA, ONTARIO – October 31, 2017 – Recent news reports of a counterfeit 1 oz. Mint-branded gold bar sold at an RBC branch have raised unfounded speculation as to the origins of the counterfeit and the purity or Royal Canadian Mint bullion products. The Mint is therefore issuing this statement to clarify the facts surrounding this matter, specifically:

  • The Mint did not manufacture, ship or sell the above-mentioned product.
  • RBC has confirmed that the bar it sold to its customer did not come from the Royal Canadian Mint and it continues to investigate the matter with our support.
  • Counterfeiting of Royal Canadian Mint bullion products is extremely rare and this is an isolated case.
  • We take any suspicion of counterfeit seriously and work with law enforcement to support their investigations.
  • Without exception, we test all of the product leaving the Mint to ensure that all gold bullion products (coins, wafers and bars) we produce and sell are at least 99.99% pure.

Customers can remain confident in the purity of Mint bullion products, which is governed by rigorous production standards reinforced by strict protocols applied at every level of refinery and minting operations. In addition, our world-class assay (or gold testing) laboratory certifies that all gold bullion delivered to customers meets its stated purity (99.99% or 99.999%). All wafers are weighed and assayed before being shipped.

Because of their purity and security, Royal Canadian Mint bullion products stand for excellence worldwide and lead the global bullion market. We vigorously protect the reputation of our brand by adding advanced anti-counterfeiting features to our bullion products, such as Bullion DNA technology and micro-engraved security marks, which offer buyers of Royal Canadian Mint bullion the highest level of security in the industry.

For more information on our bullion products, visit www.mint.ca/bullion.

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One Fake RCM Gold Bar Found – There are More! https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/fake-rcm-gold-bar-found/ Tue, 31 Oct 2017 13:28:22 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10768 Fake RCM Gold Bar Found – There are More! We feel like we are beating the proverbial drum as we write again about protecting yourself from buying counterfeit precious metals, but this is important.  The key to the articles released yesterday about a fake 1 oz Royal

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Fake RCM Gold Bar Found – There are More!
We feel like we are beating the proverbial drum as we write again about protecting yourself from buying counterfeit precious metals, but this is important.  The key to the articles released yesterday about a fake 1 oz Royal Canadian Mint gold bar being identified, is that it was sold by the ROYAL BANK OF CANADA.  The banks aren’t testing their gold, and we can guarantee that a lot of precious metals dealers aren’t either!

If there was one fake RCM gold bar found, you can rest assured there are more!  This fake RCM product was in an authentic looking blister-pack.  Packaging is what often gives people a false sense of security when buying gold and silver bullion – don’t be fooled!  The fake packaging is getting better year after year.

We have seen a multitude of different fake gold products come in to our offices over the years.  If we identify a questionable product with the Sigma Metalytics Precious Metals Verifier Pro and other tests, we simply will not buy it.  This protects you personally, as you can always know that every bullion product has been tested by our team to authenticate it’s gold, silver, platinum and palladium purity.

Bullion AuthenticationIf the dealer your are working with doesn’t provide a 100% Authenticity Guarantee, move on and find a new one.  If the local coin shop you are buying from isn’t willing to test your gold, silver, platinum or palladium right in front of you, don’t buy from them.  The same can be said if you are selling to them, if they aren’t testing your precious metals when they are buying from you, you can rest assured they are vulnerable to selling fakes in to the marketplace.

Read more about the fake gold bar that was identified in Canada on ZeroHedge:

The last time there was a widespread physical gold counterfeiting scare was in the summer of 2012 when as we reported the discovery of a single 10 oz Tungsten-filled gold bar in Manhattan’s jewelry district led to a panic among the dealer community, which then resulted in local jewelry outlets discovering at least ten more fake 10-ounce “gold bars” filled with Tungsten. Fast forward to today when a similar instance of gold counterfeiting has been discovered, this time in Canada, and where the fake bar in question had been “certified” by the highest possible authority.

According to CBC, the Royal Canadian Mint is investigating how a sealed, “pure gold” wafer with proper mint stampings has emerged as a fake. According to the Canadian press, the one-ounce gold piece, which was supposed to be 99.99% pure, was purchased by an Ottawa jeweler on Oct. 18 at a Royal Bank of Canada branch. The problem emerged when tests of the bar showed it may contain no gold at all. And, when neither the mint nor RBC would take the bar back, jeweler Samuel Tang contacted CBC news.

From the CBC News website:

Royal Canadian Mint-stamped gold wafer appears to be fake

The Royal Canadian Mint is investigating how a sealed, “pure gold” wafer with proper mint stampings may in fact be a fake.

The one-ounce gold piece, which was supposed to be 99.99 per cent pure, was purchased by an Ottawa jeweller on Oct. 18 at a Royal Bank of Canada branch. Yet tests of the bar show it may contain no gold at all.

“Who is going to make sure those gold wafers are real?” asked Tang. “I am worried there are more of those gold wafers out there, and no one knows.”

RBC has now picked up the bar and and returned it to the mint for testing, refunding Tang the $1,680 purchase price.

The Royal Canadian Mint said in a statement to CBC it is in process of testing the bar, “although the appearance of the wafer and its packaging already suggests that it is not a genuine Royal Canadian Mint product.”

William Rentz, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Telfer School of Management and an expert on investments and equity, says it is troubling.

“A currency counterfeiter doesn’t make just one fake $50 bill,” he said. “They make a whole lot of them. So I would suspect this might just be the tip of the iceberg.”

RCMP said they are aware of the incident, but no formal complaint has yet been made.

Figuring out the gold was fake

The mystery began on Oct. 18, when Tang purchased what he thought was a 99.99 per cent pure gold wafer from an RBC branch just across the road from his Glebe-area boutique, Joy Creations.

He carried the business-card-sized bar, still sealed in its Royal Canadian Mint blister-pack, back to his shop.

His goldsmith, Dennis Barnard, said he cut open the plastic mint packing and placed the one-ounce wafer in a hand-cranked jeweller’s tableting mill.

“I thought my age was catching up with me — because it was so hard to roll,” said Barnard.

‘Something is amiss’

He also tried bending the wafer. Pure gold is usually pliable and can be bent easily. Instead, Barnard says, the wafer snapped, leaving a jagged line.

“That’s when I started realizing something is amiss,” said Barnard.

Barnard then tested the gold himself, using an acid testing kit.

In an acid test, the jeweller rubs a streak of the metal across an abrasive test stone. Then, a drop of pre-mixed acid is added to the center of the streak.

If the metal streak changes colour or disappears, then the metal is less than the karat of the test acid.

Gold of 99 per cent purity is considered to be equal to 24-karat gold.

‘The bar that came from that package is a piece of junk.– Ernest Marbar, gold buyer

But the bar from RBC failed a test that gold of 18-karat or higher purity would pass.

That’s when his boss contacted RBC.

“This could be huge. There could be quite a few people out there who’ve been rolled over,” said Barnard.

CBC News took the same bar to Ernest Marbar, owner of the Gold Lobby, an Ottawa buyer of precious metals.

Marbar also found the bar failed an acid test for 14-karat gold.

Million-dollar question

“The bar that came from that package is a piece of junk,” said Marbar.

“That’s the million-dollar question — how it ended up in that plastic case,” he said.

At Joy Creations, goldsmith Barnard said his concern wasn’t with goldsmiths being duped.

Both he and Tang worry the bogus gold could be widely distributed and difficult to find, since most buyers are investors and leave the metal in the mint’s blister-packed cases.

“Who’s going to run around and open their packages, which are sealed by the mint?” asked Barnard.

It’s a concern echoed by Rentz: “It’s a serious problem. If the trust disappears, it could be seize up the market, at least temporarily.”

Checking security footage

The professor said the mint would be motivated to get to the bottom of this case, since the discovery of a counterfeit undermines confidence in their product.

Tang said last Monday he spoke with the manager of the RBC branch where he purchased the bar.

He said the manager was told by a mint dispatcher they were checking security footage, and trying to trace everyone involved in the handling of the bars.

If the swap turns out to be an inside job, it wouldn’t be the first time.

Last November, 35-year-old Leston Lawrence was found guilty of smuggling $190,000 worth of gold pucks, each the size of a small muffin, in his rectum over several months.

Lawrence worked at the mint from July 2008 until March 2015. His job included purifying gold.

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Did You Buy Fake Gold? https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/did-you-buy-fake-gold-counterfeits/ Fri, 20 Oct 2017 13:53:37 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10743 Did You Buy Fake Gold? Fake counterfeit coins and bars are everywhere – and it’s only going to get worse.  Having just returned from an anti-counterfeiting training for precious metals dealers, we felt compelled to write once again on this increasing danger for precious metals buyers. There

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Did You Buy Fake Gold?

Fake counterfeit coins and bars are everywhere – and it’s only going to get worse.  Having just returned from an anti-counterfeiting training for precious metals dealers, we felt compelled to write once again on this increasing danger for precious metals buyers.

There are three significant factors driving the increase in gold counterfeits (and silver – yes, even silver is being counterfeited):

 

1.  As precious metals prices continue to rise, the incentive for counterfeiters increases.
2.  The cost of the technology used in producing fakes is decreasing.
3.  Due to technology improvements, the quality of counterfeits has improved and therefore the volume sold is increasing for counterfeiters.

 

Don’t automatically assume that your items are authentic.  As a national precious metals dealer we don’t automatically assume that your precious metals are authentic, and neither should you.

 

We have had clients who have purchased counterfeit gold and silver from Amazon, eBay and other internet sites such as Alibaba.  Sometimes you have some recourse when you end up being shipped a fake – other times you are stuck.  And remember, these counterfeits are getting really, really good.

 

Look at the photo below.  The Chinese openly advertise that their fake 1 oz Gold American Eagle coin can pass the weight and diameter tests that many people (and dealers) rely on to authenticate their coins.  As a dealer that offers an Authenticity Guarantee for our clients, we would never rely simply on a weight and dimension measurements as an authentication practice.  We employ a number of different authentication tools including, but not limited to the Sigma Metalytics Precious Metals Verifier Pro that makes four separate measurements to verify metal content in a coin or bar,  More effective than XRF technology that only penetrates millimeters, the Sigma Metalytics measures surface resistivity, and the resistivity all the way through the coin at the same time.

 

Alibaba Fake Gold Eagle Coins

 

As the Vice Chairman of the Industry Council for Tangible Assets (ICTA), John can attest that one of their principal endeavors is to both stem the flow of counterfeits, as well as educate the dealer community (and public) on their identification.  ICTA has established the Anti-Counterfeiting Task Force (ACTF) that works with federal law enforcement, the Secret Service and virtually all of the major refiners and sovereign national mints.

 

You should deal directly with a reputable dealer with whom you have a personal relationship.  And that dealer should offer a 100% Authenticity Guarantee as we do.
If you have an existing inventory of metals, have them tested using the latest state-of-the-art technology, which has advanced significantly in the past year.  We offer Authentication Services if you want to have your metals tested.  Click “Read More” to learn more about our Bullion Authentication procedures.

 

 

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Gold is Ready to Rumble https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/gold-ready-rumble/ Tue, 17 Oct 2017 12:38:11 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10726 Gold is Ready to Rumble When you begin to analyze gold in relation to various currencies, including the USD, Canadian Dollar, Sterling, Yuan and Australian Dollars, gold appears to be positioning for strong upward moves. All of the major currencies outside of the USD appear to support

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Gold is Ready to Rumble

When you begin to analyze gold in relation to various currencies, including the USD, Canadian Dollar, Sterling, Yuan and Australian Dollars, gold appears to be positioning for strong upward moves. All of the major currencies outside of the USD appear to support a move to the upside for gold.

Here you will find an article by our colleague Ben Drage whom we partner with for Gold and Silver analysis and commentaries.  An expert from London, with a Law degree from Oxford University, Ben had a successful brokerage career before branching off to focus on his personal trading.  He is well known for his effective use of Median Line Analysis and the power of simplicity in his technical analysis.

While we are focused on the ownership of physical metals, those of you that are engaged or interested in Forex trading will find Ben’s analysis and training to be incredibly useful.  Even as physical bullion investors, we find his Gold and Silver market analysis to be of great help as we look to decipher the markets.

Gold across Currencies Looking Ready to Rumble….

Could this be the moment that Gold Bulls have been waiting for? The metal looks to be setting itself up for a strong and sustained move to the upside, not just priced in US Dollars, but also in a number of other currencies. At Forex Analytics we like to take the broader view and we follow Gold and Silver across the wider spectrum. Using Median Line Analysis we take an alternate view of the Markets, eschewing horizontal Supports and Resistances for following the action of price along the lines of our pitchforks.

Chart 1 shows Gold in USD on a 240 minute time frame and anyone looking for horizontal Supports or Resistances would not have had a clue why price turned from the 1262 spike low on Friday. Instead by thinking along the angle of the pitchfork, Chart 2 has proved its worth, not only showing exact Upper Parallel Resistance but also pip-perfect Support $100 away at the circled Lower Parallel. At the time of writing we see the move to the upside held under the green Sliding Parallel where prior Support has, for the time being, become Resistance.

Gold Futures Chart 1

 

Gold Futures Chart 2

Turning to other currencies and longer time frames, Chart 3 shows Gold on a Weekly basis in Canadian Dollars. Here the trend is very much to the upside with the path of price clearly defined by the lines of the pitchfork. We’ve had four good bounces from the green Sliding Parallel Support and we are currently a very long way from Resistance above. One other thing to note is how price is currently moving higher without the need to revisit the green Sliding Parallel – higher Support in the line of the pitchfork means higher prices ahead, and we will continue to monitor the action.

Gold Futures Chart 3

Chart 4 is Gold in Australian Dollars – this is the only major market where price has been above the 2011 peak, and it did so by a whisker in 2016. Again you can see a line of solid Support shown by the green Sliding Parallel. Resistance is not as uniform as in the Canadian chart above but once again we can discern what looks to be a stepping up in Support. The red arrows show how it looks to have moved higher from the green Sliding Parallel to just under the Quartile of the pitchfork. Again, higher Support means higher prices….

Gold Futures Chart 4

Chart 5 shows Gold in Sterling and though the bullish case is less easy to make here, there is good evidence of strong Support here along the green Sliding Parallel as well as being an argument for saying that price is once again stepping up in Support. Again Resistance in this chart is a significant distance above current levels.

Gold Futures Chart 5

Our final Chart 6 shows Gold in Chinese Yuan where once again we see validation of the pitchfork from the precise Upper Parallel touch and ejection. Once more we find a line of Support in the angle of the fork and note that price is again poised close to this line. Plenty of scope for a move to the upside and little risk to the downside should be welcome news to bulls after seeing Gold in a six year Bear market.

Gold Futures Chart 6

We’ll be following Gold and Silver across various currencies whilst having our main focus on the price in US Dollars. If you would like to find out more about our work and our services please visit the website at www.forex-analytics.com or follow us on Twitter at @ForexAnalytics1 or maybe come along to a free Webinar on Tuesday 7th November at 1pm EST via this Registration link:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1866595096696547585

 

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Bullion Buyers Ripped Off Millions of Dollars https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/bullion-buyers-ripped-off-millions-dollars/ Thu, 14 Sep 2017 15:15:35 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10636 Bullion Buyers Ripped Off Millions of Dollars   Make no mistake, buying precious metals is a little bit like the wild west.  Essentially there is no regulation until the public is so wronged that the government finally steps in.  You can read the full press release below

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Bullion Buyers Ripped Off Millions of Dollars

 

Make no mistake, buying precious metals is a little bit like the wild west.  Essentially there is no regulation until the public is so wronged that the government finally steps in.  You can read the full press release below about bullion buyers being ripped off millions of dollars.

 

The unethical practice of selling the most expensive and often inappropriate forms of gold and silver products, and then supposedly storing it without the customer ever taking delivery has been around for a long time.  Even more egregious is when the precious metals company offers the customer the opportunity to leverage their purchase through complex margin and loan agreements. Almost invariably the customer ends up losing money on a purchase when they should have accepted physical delivery.

 

How can this happen?  Simple.  There is no governmental body that regulates the physical precious metals market.  Only when sales tactics that resemble commodities trading such as those practiced by the firms in the press release, does the government get involved.

 

Our advice – if you can’t hold it – you don’t own it.  Possession is 99% of the law.  The only exception is storage with our approved and vetted depository partners such as those in Canada, Delaware and the Cayman Islands.

 

I have had prospective clients elect to go down the path of buying from one of these unethical firms, as they were promised a “better deal” by their boiler room telemarketers.  Ultimately, they lost money and came to regret their decision.  They now do business with only us.

 

Know your dealer.  Know how long your dealer has been in business.  Know how they do business – this is critical.  Do they employ a telemarketing team that doesn’t own an ounce of metals themselves?  Run.  Know their reputation.  Google maps and the BBB website provide the most authentic, unadulterated client reviews.  Other sites can often offer paid reviews or fake reviews altogether.

 

Here is a hint:  If they are advertising on television, you are paying for those ads through the sales tactics we just described.  Buyer beware.

 

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Full CFTC press release below:

CFTC Charges Monex Deposit Company, its Affiliates, and their Principals in Multi-Million Dollar Fraudulent Precious Metals Scheme

CFTC alleges that defendants deceived thousands of retail customers who lost hundreds of millions of dollars in connection with illegal, off-exchange leveraged precious metals transactions

Washington, DC – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that on September 6, 2017, it filed a civil injunctive enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois against three affiliated companies located in Newport Beach, California, Monex Deposit CompanyMonex Credit Company, and Newport Services Corporation(collectively, Monex), and Monex’s principals Louis Carabini and Michael Carabini. The CFTC Complaint charges the Defendants, among other claims, with defrauding thousands of retail customers nationwide out of hundreds of millions of dollars, while executing thousands of illegal, off-exchange leveraged commodity transactions.

James McDonald, the CFTC’s Director of Enforcement stated: “Today, we announce the filing of one of the largest precious metals fraud cases in the history of the Commission. As alleged, the Defendants defrauded thousands of retail customers—many of whom are elderly—out of hundreds of millions of dollars as part of a multi-year scheme. Fraud in our markets, like that alleged here, undermines confidence, reduces transparency, and harms competition. As this investigation shows, we’ll work tirelessly to detect and prosecute fraud of the sort that’s alleged here.”

CFTC Commissioner Sharon Bowen commented: “I am proud to support this enforcement action.  The kind of massive fraud alleged here goes to the heart of our core mission as an agency, and mine as a Commissioner. I came to the Commission committed to investor protection. And I leave with that commitment unshaken.”

According to the Complaint, Monex offers leveraged trading in gold, silver, platinum and palladium to retail customers through its “Atlas” program. Monex deceptively pitches leveraged trading through the Atlas program as a safe, secure and profitable way to invest in precious metals, the Complaint alleges. In reality, however, nearly everyone who placed leveraged trades in an Atlas account between July of 2011 and March of 2017 lost money, the Complaint alleges. According to the Complaint, over 12,000 trading accounts were used to place leveraged precious metals trades resulting in more than $290 million in customer losses between July 16, 2011 and March 31, 2017. The Complaint alleges that in order to push customers into the Atlas program and to generate trades, the Defendants employed high-pressure sales tactics, systematically downplayed the risks associated with the Atlas program, and falsely promised customers that Monex would act as the customers’ fiduciary and would always act in those customers’ best interests. As a result of Defendants’ conduct, many customers lost their life savings, while Monex and its owners pocketed millions of dollars, the Complaint alleges.

The Complaint further alleges that Defendants’ leveraged commodity transactions are unlawful because they were not, and are not, executed on or subject to the rules of a regulated exchange, as required by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, effective July 16, 2011.

The Complaint also alleges that the Defendants were required to register as Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) but failed to do so in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. Individual Defendants Louis and Michael Carabini are charged directly with the offering of the unlawful leveraged commodity transactions and charged with the fraud and registration violations as controlling persons of Monex who knowingly induced the underlying violations or failed to act in good faith.

The CFTC is seeking preliminary injunctive relief to enjoin Monex from continuing to market the Atlas program to retail customers, and appointment of a monitor over Monex for the Atlas trading accounts. The requested preliminary injunction Order would prohibit the Defendants from trading, soliciting orders, committing fraud, or engaging in business activity related to contracts or transactions regulated by the CFTC until there is a final decision on the merits. In its continuing litigation, the CFTC seeks disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, restitution for the benefit of defrauded pool participants, civil monetary penalties, permanent registration and trading bans, and a permanent injunction from future violations of federal commodities laws, as charged.

The CFTC Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this action are Carlin Metzger, Michael Frisch, Eric Schleef, Brigitte Weyls, Joseph Konizeski, Jeffrey Gomberg, Scott Williamson, and Rosemary Hollinger. The CFTC Division of Enforcement also thanks the Division of Market Oversight Surveillance Staff for its assistance.

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CFTC’s Precious Metals Customer Fraud Advisory

The CFTC has issued several customer protection Fraud Advisories that provide the warning signs of fraud, including the Precious Metals Fraud Advisory, which alerts customers to precious metals fraud and lists simple ways to spot precious metals scams.

Customers can report suspicious activities or information, such as possible violations of commodity trading laws, to the CFTC Division of Enforcement via a Toll-Free Hotline 866-FON-CFTC (866-366-2382) or file a tip or complaintonline.

Media Contact
Dennis Holden
202-418-5088

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Gold Break Out or Gold Head Fake https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/gold-break-gold-head-fake/ Fri, 01 Sep 2017 17:38:04 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10529 Gold Break Out or Gold Head Fake? Since 2011 Gold has been squeezed in a wedge where the upward and downward slope have been almost equal.  Support has been rising and resistance falling at almost the exact same rate.  And, it has been in formation for six

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Gold Break Out or Gold Head Fake?

Since 2011 Gold has been squeezed in a wedge where the upward and downward slope have been almost equal.  Support has been rising and resistance falling at almost the exact same rate.  And, it has been in formation for six years!  So the question is this a gold break out or a gold head fake?

Ten Year Gold Chart

 

The gold price has been compressed to the point where it is forced to go one way or the other.  And, it has pierced resistance to the upside – now with clear skies above.

What is next?  Certainly, there is a strong case that gold will go back to test its highs at $1,900.  It won’t be a straight line – and it will most probably climb a wall of worry to get there, throwing many off along the way, but that’s eventually where its headed.  The train has left the station just like back in  the years 2006 and 2007.

Back then, the corrections along the way (see chart above) left many casualties and kicked many unbelievers and those that were faint of heart to the curb.  It will do exactly the same again, possibly with even more vengeance and volatility.  But those who hold on (and it may take a couple of years) will eventually see $1900, possibly $2500, or even more.  Stamina and sustenance will be required, but the long-term benefit and gain will be the reward.

And it’s not just the hope of profit to be gained by owning physical gold – it is all of the other benefits that come with physical gold ownership:

  • Insurance – You are insuring against any form of financial calamity – banking crisis, fiat currency demise, central bank policies, the move toward cashless society (and unbridled tracking of the financial affairs of individuals.)
  • Confidentiality – Remember, there is no social security number on the precious metals you purchase.
  • Transportability – (100) 1 oz gold coins worth $130,000 fits in 5 tubes the size of a disposable salt shaker, and could easily be carried in a couple of pockets or a purse.
  • Acceptability – Mainstream gold coins and bars are excepted anywhere in the world, 24 hours a day.  Any country anywhere has a market in gold – 24/7.
  • Wealth Transfer – It can legally be passed in an estate outside the legal system.
  • Safe Haven – International geopolitical concerns drive investors in to gold.  North Korea is chief amongst them, and gold will serve as a safe haven amidst geopolitical risks.

Remember, physical precious metals should be a 5-20% allocation in your portfolio, depending on your personal financial philosophy.  For some, 5% is more than enough.  For others, 20% may be justifiable.  Just be balanced in your approach and percentage allocations.

If you have been waiting for a point to enter the precious metals market, or have wanted to add, your opportunity is now.

If you have any questions regarding the precious metals market, we will be happy to have a one-on-one discussion with you at no obligation.

Quote of the Day:    Paraphrasing Churchill, “Central banks will do what is right, after they have exhausted all other alternatives.”

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Waiting for a Republican Rollback of Government? Don’t Hold Your Breath https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/republicans-rollback-of-government/ Mon, 28 Aug 2017 15:14:55 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=10446 Waiting for a Republican Rollback of Government? Don’t Hold Your Breath As staunch Libertarians, the team at Fisher Precious Metals doesn’t put their faith in either governing party, and we are certainly not waiting for a Republican rollback of government.  Here we are with the ongoing Republican

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Waiting for a Republican Rollback of Government? Don’t Hold Your Breath

As staunch Libertarians, the team at Fisher Precious Metals doesn’t put their faith in either governing party, and we are certainly not waiting for a Republican rollback of government.  Here we are with the ongoing Republican conundrum of their empty acknowledgement of excessive government and adjoining debt, as they craft budgets that simply continue with entitlement spending obligations for generations to come.  And this is the result of long standing multi-term Republicans repeating the same budgetary sins of their past.

Perhaps they should stop their Democratic finger pointing and own up themselves on entitlement and subsidy elimination.  That is the only way we will see a rollback of government in this country.

By: Gregory Bresiger –The Mises Institute

The Republicans failed on health care, but now they are offering a new plan for tax and spending cuts, with a promise of smaller government.

But the GOP, with few exceptions, seems about as creditable as the Democrats and their flawed, small-business killer, Obamacare. Many of the Democrats are people who subscribe to a socialism without doctrines; a kind of backdoor collectivism. So now, as they expect the Republicans to fail and lose control of Congress, naturally many of them are waiting for their chance to ram a single payer health care system down the throats of already overtaxed Americans.

Many Americans thought they were voting for less government in 2016, but they have been disappointed again and again by a party that doesn’t seemed interested in rolling back government.

Sir, Could You Just Give Us One More Chance?

Still, Republicans, in their recent budget document say they will get taxes and spending right this time. This is reminiscent of the character Hoover in the 1970s movie Animal House. In the wreckage of a college homecoming parade that he and his fellow expelled hooligans have just destroyed, he pleads with the college dean, “This may seem an inappropriate time to bring this up, but could you just give us one more chance?”

Republicans want just “one more chance” to roll back an out of control government that they helped to build. So now they have offered their proposals in their economic game plan, “Building a Better America,” the GOP’s “Plan for Fiscal Responsibility” coming out of the House Budget Committee.  It calls for cutting taxes and details the outrageous overreach of government.

And while the GOP budget statement does a good job of documenting the spending problems of too much government, the plan has several flaws: It doesn’t go far enough in cutting back government, of course, but the main problem is that it is offered to us by many of the same people who created a lot of the problem over the past generations.

The Fox Guarding the Henhouse?

Indeed, these are some of the same lawmakers who gave us big, intrusive and deficit laden government for generations. In reading over this document and its warnings that government deficits now threaten to destroy our nation, one gets the impression that these Republicans were a bunch of Mr. Smiths who just arrived in Washington. However, the truth is quite different.

One example of the legacy of fiscal disasters outlined in “Building a Better America,” but which we can trace back to the GOP, is Republican stalwart Dick Cheney.

The former republican vice president and defense secretary is often quoted as dismissing deficits.

“Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter,” Cheney famously said.

Yet deficits do matter — at least that’s what “Building a Better America” tells me. Not surprisingly, the GOP plan doesn’t mention Dick Cheney.

Another example of the GOP’s selective memory is the issue of bureaucracy and red tape.

For many Americans — especially business owners — red tape continues to be a problem.

How do I know?

Again “Building a Better America” —  given to us by a party that has controlled all or parts of Congress for over a decade — tells me so. The report states the obvious: entitlement spending promises will eat up much of the earnings of an unborn generation. Here is an example:

“Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office [CBO] estimates that the annual budget deficit will balloon to over $1.4 trillion by 2027 – driven mostly by an increase in mandatory spending programs – absent swift and decisive action to rein in federal spending,” according to the Republican document. However, it doesn’t mention that many Republicans have voted for these programs and their perpetual expansion.

But if this pattern of red ink continues over the next generation or so government spending will be bigger than the economy, the Republicans say, pointing to CBO numbers.

“Deficits will continue to rise over the coming decades, with federal debt held by the public reaching 150 percent of the size of our economy in 30 years. Taxes will eat up more and more of American work. Again, it is the CBO, often maligned by some republicans, to which the Republicans refer … The policy problem facing the United States is that spending rises above any reasonable metric of taxation for the indefinite future,” according to former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin in a recent House Budget Committee hearing.

“Our fiscal path,” added Gene Dodaro, the Comptroller General of the United States, is on the road to disaster. He said the pace of spending “is unsustainable, and if we fail to get control of debt and deficits, we are putting our country at risk of a fiscal and economic crisis.”

This is an old story. Some 17 years ago, the Kerrey-Danforth Entitlement Commission came to the same conclusion.

Indeed, the GOP study now finds that two-thirds of the nation’s annual budget funds government programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. They are not subject to annual review by Congress. Here we see the GOP hedging; its acknowledgement of a serious economic/philosophical threat to economic liberty and yet a reluctance to do something of substance.

“While these programs are vital to the people they serve, their spending rates are unsustainable and the key drivers of our nation’s fiscal challenge,” the GOP document says.

The Republican Anomaly

However, are these right-wing critics of the welfare state really the ones to end or dramatically reduce it?

The anomaly of the “Building a Better America” document is the GOP will identify the sins of too much government, but really are proposing very little to correct them. Take the discussion of Amtrak, the government’s ramshackle passenger railroad system. It was created by a republican administration in the 1970s. That’s something omitted from “Building a Better America.” Amtrak has been a subject of almost constant discussion here in New York over the last few months. Amtrak’s close to half century of disaster has been highlighted as its poorly maintained Penn Station has been falling apart.

In this section of “Building a Better America” some part of the GOP, despite all the criticism of the federal government in this document, reveals itself as wanting to put a human face on socialism; attempting to save some parts of big government even as it crumbles. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars sunk into Amtrak since the 1970s, the GOP only proposes “to reduce” subsidies for Amtrak. It doesn’t propose to get rid of it. And here is how the supposed party of small government phrases it.

The budget assumes reduced federal subsidies for Amtrak’s operations. Federal subsidies have insulated the National Railroad Passenger Corporation [Amtrak] from becoming self-sufficient, and they commit taxpayers nationwide to underwriting the commutes, recreation, and other trips for a fraction of the traveling public. The 1997 Amtrak authorization law required Amtrak to operate free of subsidies by 2002. Yet taxpayers continue subsidizing Amtrak tickets.

Again, the GOP is correct in its analysis, although its history is incomplete. Actually, the Republican Nixon administration, started this mess. Back in the 1970s it began the ill-fated Amtrak. Then the Nixon administration, promised “the greatest turnaround in business history.” (From the book End of the Line: The Failure of Amtrak Reform and the Future of America’s Passenger Trains).

Amtrak was going to make money? Almost a half century later, that’s a comical comment except that the joke has been on American taxpayers.

So how will Republicans fix the trains? They promise to “reduce” the Amtrak subsidy.

Reduce it?

What happened to the days of ending the national railroad that has literally and figurately gone off the tracks. And here is the basic problem with “Building a Better America.”

George Explains It All

Most Republicans here aren’t proposing to dismantle the warfare/welfare state, they are actually saying they can manage it better than Democrats. This was clearly explained to me by Republican columnist George Will at a Security Traders Association conference I attended about 15 years ago while working for Traders Magazine.

“Republicans are doing a better job at running the welfare state than Democrats,” said Will in his speech to the traders.

As Will hurried out, I couldn’t resist stopping him.

“Great speech, Mr. Will,” I said as he started puff up and I thought he expected me to ask him for an autograph, but nevertheless I unleashed my ambush.

“Yes, sir, now I know why I’m a libertarian,” I said.

He grumbled, shook his head and hurried away as fast as he could. Maybe that’s what we should do with the ideas of the GOP’s “Building a Better America.”

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Ongoing Flash Crash Speculation https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/ongoing-flash-crash-speculation/ https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/ongoing-flash-crash-speculation/#comments Mon, 10 Jul 2017 18:29:44 +0000 https://fisherpreciousmetals.com/?p=9697 Ongoing Flash Crash Speculation By:  Lynn Fisher.   In August of 2013, Nasdaq-listed securities fell offline for just over three hours.  On October 15, 2014 the 10 year Treasury Note experienced an extreme flash crash.  Then on July 9, 2015 there was the Nasdaq’s “Flash Freeze”.  And

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Ongoing Flash Crash Speculation

By:  Lynn Fisher.   In August of 2013, Nasdaq-listed securities fell offline for just over three hours.  On October 15, 2014 the 10 year Treasury Note experienced an extreme flash crash.  Then on July 9, 2015 there was the Nasdaq’s “Flash Freeze”.  And in the final week of June, gold dumped 1.8 million ounces at 4 a.m., driving the metal below its 200-day moving average.  Flash crashes continue, year after year, and there is ongoing flash crash speculation.

Now add the recent silver flash crash of almost 11% in the overnight market on July 6th US that moved silver from $16.06 USD down to a bottom of $14.34 USD within a 1 minute interval, a market move that has all of the world speculating on the actual cause.  It is purported to be one of many things, a broker liquidating a massive client position, a genuine algorithm glitch, the Bank of Japan liquidating six thousand contracts,  or an overt manipulation to take gold lower via silver (if so, it worked.)  However, the bulk of speculation via the mainstream media pointed to electronic, or algorithmic trading as the cause of the “Flash Crash”.  Hmmm.

Ironically, the CME has chosen to stay completely silent on the issue, other than stating that their “Velocity Logic” safeguard that paused the market for 10 seconds “worked as designed, allowing liquidity to come back in to the market.”  Nothing like manipulation, as the September and December silver futures were adjusted, in addition to a multitude of mini-futures. As if flash crashes are completely normal events and to be expected in market performance – they are not.

In our humble opinion, the overt manipulation is clear.  Add up the key factors to determine means and motive.  Note that the trades were executed after the US market closed and upon the Tokyo open.  This was done specifically so that the orders did not have to be filled with physical COMEX silver.  No physical metal inventory moved, it was a complicit paper move, executed with extreme precision.  That was the means, now what about the motive?  The government is desperate to drive investors out of physical gold and silver and in to fiat currency, plain and simple.  By instilling fear via perceived volatility, they hope to decrease investment in the real money of precious metals and increase the purchase of national currencies.

Keep in mind, if you are of the manipulation mindset, be encouraged that the bullion banks would not be cycling out of massive numbers of short positions if they thought the price was going to go down significantly.  One can then rest on the rationale that prices are about to go up.

Here is what we DO know for sure.  Market manipulations always fail… eventually.  The paper markets continue to separate from the physical metals.  The backwardation that exists in the metals market has only been furthered by these flash crashes.  And remember that patience is a virtue that is rewarded in the physical metals market.

I’ll take this opportunity to add silver (still the buy based on the current gold:silver ratio) to my holdings.

Finally, stop reading the ongoing flash crash speculation and gain further education on the physical precious metals market manipulation from our friend and colleague Chris Powell via the GATA.org site.

 

 

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