Gold is setting records again, boosting the holdings of central banks, Armageddon worrywarts, and ordinary people who own gold bars, coins and jewelry.
But few individuals stand to benefit as much as low-profile billionaire Thomas Kaplan. A New York-born commodities magnate who earned a doctorate in British colonial history at Oxford, Mr. Kaplan oversees an empire devoted largely to gold.
Many fund managers and high-rollers have allocated small percentages of their portfolios to gold as a hedge against inflation. But Mr. Kaplan is the bull of bullion. He has gone further than perhaps any other major investor, betting the majority of his wealth on gold and other precious metals. And it reflects his deeply held conviction that global economic instability could bring rising demand for gold.
Through his firm, Tigris Financial Group, and affiliates, Mr. Kaplan has loaded up on bullion and bought up properties in 17 countries on five continents, where geologists are exploring for more. Tigris subsidiaries have taken stakes in mining companies, including tiny firms that have yet to produce an ounce.
Though he won’t disclose how much physical gold he owns, Mr. Kaplan, who is 47 years old, controls up to 30% of the shares in some so-called junior miners. Together, his holdings amount to a nearly $2 billion bet on gold, more than the Brazilian central bank’s bullion is currently worth.
“I’ve reached a point where I feel the only asset I have confidence in is gold,” Mr. Kaplan said in an interview at Tigris’s midtown Manhattan headquarters.
Mr. Kaplan’s views are shaped by a concern, shared by many investors, that heavy government spending hasn’t contained the woes facing the financial system. Gold hit an exchange record of $1,242.70 a troy ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on May 12, days after euro-zone leaders announced a nearly $1 trillion bailout for ailing member states.
He has experience with how supply and demand can drive the price of raw materials. His doctoral thesis studied Britain’s involvement after World War II in Malaya, home to prized rubber and tin. That taught him how far people and governments will go to secure natural resources.
Wanting to apply his insights, he went to Israel to advise hedge funds. His nose for finding valuable resources was developed at firms he started that explored for silver and natural gas, which helped him make his fortune.
On Demand and Supply
Gold miners are struggling to make major discoveries and it takes years to bring new finds into production. If people want to stock up on gold in a hurry, it will be hard to ramp up production enough to satisfy them, Mr. Kaplan believes.
“You’ve got a perfect storm with no apparent solution,” he said. “If the world does well, gold will be fine. If the world doesn’t do well, gold will also do fine … but a lot of other things could collapse.”
Mr. Kaplan is known in the mining industry for his all-in approach. “When he likes something, he dives in with both feet,” Egizio Bianchini, a banker at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said of Mr. Kaplan, whom he has worked with in the past.
In his charitable endeavors, Mr. Kaplan works similarly. In 2006, he co-founded Panthera Corp., whose “single-minded pursuit” is preserving the world’s endangered wild cats, he wrote in an open letter on the group’s site in which he cited inspirational quotes by Winston Churchill, Edward R. Murrow and Marcus Aurelius.
Mr. Kaplan is also president of the board of directors at New York’s 92nd Street Y, a prominent cultural organization that is a magnet for New York’s elite. And he is a benefactor of Eternal Jewish Family, a group dedicated to uniform rules governing conversions to Judaism whose leader resigned last year amid an alleged sex scandal.
In some cases, Mr. Kaplan has invested in gold miners that have also attracted the attention of fellow billionaires, such as George Soros and John Paulson.
Mr. Kaplan put money into one firm, Gabriel Resources Ltd., in late 2007 after Mr. Paulson, who made billions of dollars betting against housing markets, mentioned how low the stock had fallen while they attended “The Nutcracker” at the New York City Ballet.
“I’m there,” Mr. Kaplan recalls was his response.
In early March, Mr. Paulson’s firm, Paulson & Co., and Quantum Partners, Ltd., an investment fund run by Soros Fund Management, invested $100 million and $75 million, respectively, in NovaGold Resources Inc., a Canadian miner, paying $5.50 a share. Their move came a year after Mr. Kaplan, who has $69 million invested in the company, acquired 30% of the firm for $1.30 a share.
Gold prices are up 7.4% this year, after rising 24% last year, which was the ninth straight up year for bullion. Mr. Kaplan thinks that greater gains are coming. “I wouldn’t even say we’re in a bull market yet,” he said.
But Mr. Kaplan has concentrated risk in a volatile sector, and he knows the potential pitfalls better than most.
In 2008, for instance, a company that Mr. Kaplan founded, Apex Silver Mines Ltd., went bankrupt, felled by the terms of a loan made after Mr. Kaplan left the company in 2004. The company emerged from bankruptcy last year, and now operates as Golden Minerals Co.
In January 2009, Mr. Kaplan received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission related to what the company said were “impermissible payments” of $125,000 to government officials by executives at a South American subsidiary.
The SEC delivers Wells notices to inform recipients that it may bring an enforcement action, providing an opportunity for the recipient to persuade the agency not to pursue charges. No charges have been filed against Mr. Kaplan. An SEC spokesman declined to comment.
Concentrated Risk
Mr. Kaplan’s current investments also carry risk. Gabriel Resources owns Europe’s biggest undeveloped gold deposit, in Romania, but has been waiting for government approval for years. He has $100 million at stake in the company.
Mr. Kaplan acknowledges the dangers involved in investing in small mining companies. “It’s not the kind of thing I would suggest for widows and orphans,” he said.
And, he added, he isn’t in a rush to cash in on his gold investments. “If I am right about the big picture,” he said, “I will be rewarded for my patience.”
All Things Considered – John’s Commentary:
Normally the only people who go “all in” are those on TV poker shows. This article features several very smart billionaires who have made major investments in precious metals. Please read the article and decide for yourself.
Action to take: Slow and steady. Markets are too wild to try and time. Periodic modest amounts are the name of the game.
What to buy: Silver is favored over gold on a 2/3 to 1/3 basis. Pre-1965 silver is an exceptionally good value now. Shipped free overnight.
Quote of the day: “Gold bears the confidence of the world’s millions, who value it far above the promises of politicians, far above the unbacked paper issued by governments as money substitutes. It has been that way through all recorded history. There is no reason to believe it will lose the confidence of people in the future.” – Oakley R. Bramble
