By:  John Fisher

Why would I make such a statement?

Please consider for a minute – haven’t the metals always “seemed” too expensive?  In the moment, it is usually a definite “yes”.  In hindsight however, the answer is no.   I remember when silver reached $8 from a bottom of $4.24.  Potential customers felt silver had become very expensive and were reticent to make an initial purchase.  Then, when silver reached $12, $15 and $18 – individuals I spoke with were certain silver was too expensive.  When silver broached $20 and now $30 – it has to be a peak, right?

The same holds true for gold.  As gold climbed, price points of $400, $600, $850 (the previous all time nominal high), certainly $1,000, then $1250 seemed unsustainable – and so we go.

At each step of the way, people did not take action because of their perception of the prevailing price.  Unfortunately, now many of those same individuals are experiencing regret that they hadn’t acted in the moment.

Here’s the point – the metals have always “seemed” too high at the moment.  The metals will always seem too high at the moment.  It’s been that way for eight years.

It’s not too late.  Seriously!  Those who bought previously are still buying at these levels.  Much higher prices lie ahead.  $50 dollar silver is already baked in the cake and $100 silver is a lock.  $300 silver is possible.  Look for gold to reach $1650 and then $2000.  $3000 gold is very, very plausible.  Does this sound absurd?  In 2002, so did $35 silver and $1400 gold.

We are in Stage Two of a three stage bull market.  This stage is referred to as a “Wall of Worry”, where prices continue to climb in the face of pricing concern by the investing public.  This will not go away.  Until the metals market tops, which will be easy to identify – prices will always be “too high”.

Click here for our overview on the “3 Stages of the Metals Market”….

All Things Considered – John’s Commentary John Full Profile 2010

Action to take: If you don’t own gold and/or silver and want to diversify with physical metals  –  just get in.  Dip your toe in the water.  You don’t have to jump off the high dive.

Best Buys: Many bullion items are very inexpensive versus the spot price.  For example, US and European gold coins can be purchased at 3.5% over spot and silver at 3.4% over spot, both including delivery.

Quote of the day: “The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice.”  –  Henry Hazlitt

3 Comments
  1. I do agree with you that silver will continue to rise; it’s not at the 1970s levels yet after adjusting for inflation. Inflation, political factors, and increase of industrial use are making silver more desirable and driving the price up. I don’t see how the metals market reaching a top will be easy to identify. How would you see it?

    • The best way to identify the impending top of the market is when everyone wants to buy or “wants in” (think dot.com, real estate etc.) – then we begin to sell. Today, only an approximate 2%of the population owns gold and silver (physical metals) – paper proxies are not an accurate measure. When the friends and family members that refuse to listen to the wisdom of hedging with gold and silver today begin to listen, you know the market top is beginning to near (especially when they actually buy.) Don’t be fooled by the inevitable correction in the market that is yet to come – many will sell their positions at this point – it will be a “false market top”.

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