July 12, 2023
Gold is up this morning on lower than expected inflation numbers, gaining over $15 on the new report.
“Official” Inflation has dropped to its lowest rate in over two years. “Official” CPI increased 3% from a
year ago – the lowest gain since March 2021. These numbers are better than the Dow Jones forecast for
each of the estimates.
REMEMBER TWO THINGS: 1) the government is reporting its own numbers and is inherently
incentivized to under report, hence “official” in quortes, and 2) these numbers are typically revised in
the future.
The dollar is trading near its lowest level in two months, making gold a more attractive investment to
holders of other currencies.
About 92% of investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting that the Fed will raise rates by 25
basis points at its July meeting, while 8% expect it to keep rates unchanged. The rate hikes have totaled
5 percentage points since March 2022.
The Fed held rates unchanged last month for the first time after 10 consecutive increases. The Fed left
its benchmark federal funds rate at 5.00% to 5.25% last month.
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