Predictions For 2024 – Good, Bad and UGLY

Predictions For 2024 – Good, Bad and UGLY               

I do not have a crystal ball, but these predictions are the distillation of everything I have read and everyone I have spoken with in and outside of the industry.

MORTGAGES

Mortgage rates will fall below 6% for credit scores above 750.  Marginal credit will see interest rates around 6.5%

PREDICT MORE INFLATION

Real inflation (not the fake, self-serving government numbers) will outstrip wage growth.  The Low and middle income households will get poorer in real terms

INCOMING LAYOFFS

I am reading predictions showing 10% layoffs in big and small companies everywhere (Google, Citi, UPS).  Don’t believe unemployment numbers.  I have clients and acquaintances who have applied for a multitude of jobs to no avail.  AI and robotics are going to wipe out many professions – blue and white collar.  Young people should consider the trades (plumber, electrician, medical) where there will most likely always be a need.

PREDICT MORE CONSUMER SPENDING

Spending went crazy during the plandemic, and predictions show it is not slowing down.  Consumer debt is between $1-$1.4 TRILLION dollars.  Average credit card interest rate stands at 21.2%.  Delinquencies are at all-time highs.  Bankruptcies are on the rise.  19% of all car loan/lease monthly payments are over $1,000.  Average car loan term is 5.5 years.  62% of new car loans are being denied.  Mortgage application denials are on the rise.  Here in south Florida, the Canadians didn’t come down this year as they always do – they couldn’t afford it due to prices and exchange rate.

DE-DOLLARIZATION

The dollar is continuing to decline in prominence.  What country wants to hold debt of a nation that is 135% of GDP and dilutes (prints) at will?  BRICS and prospective BRICS countries want an alternative.  The U.S. uses the dollar as a weapon, most recently illustrated by forbidding Russia to use the SWIFT international payments system.  Russia is showing the world that they don’t need dollars – they can do direct currency swaps with the recipients of their oil and store their reserves in gold and bitcoin.

MORE WAR

Predictions show wars, proxy wars and new wars will increase.  Ukraine will eventually have to acquiesce, at least partially.  The U.S. and Israel will bomb Iran while the international community stands by with token support – allowing us to use money we don’t have and continue to put our soldiers in harms way.  China will go into Taiwan – maybe not this year – but they will.  One of these days someone will use a nuclear device.

PREDICTIONS ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Prediction show that we will continue to drown in illegal immigrants. We have terrorists within our country planning single and/or significant attacks.  We will have another 9-11 equivalent instance.  Chemical, Cyber, bombing or even a dirty nuclear device.  Immigrants will be in every city in the United States as they spread out.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Here are some possibilities:  Either Trump or Biden don’t make it to election day.  Haley is hanging on in case Trump goes to jail or dies prematurely.  Newsome and Michelle Obama are in the wings in case Biden completely falters or dies prematurely.  Jail, complete falter or premature death for Trump or Biden – desperate times, desperate measures.  In the end, as with the 2020 election, the end justifies the means.  How about a national cyber event just before the election, or covid 2.0, or use your imagination, could result in suspension of the election and martial law.

FED PIVOT

It’s an election year.  “It’s the economy stupid”.  Predictions show rates will come down.   Liquidity will be pumped into the system which will have to flow somewhere.  The stock market and home prices will rise.  Many people will “feel” richer.  Fed rate pivots typically are followed by a recession 6-12 months later.  They will juice the economy and put lipstick on the pig.

This list isn’t exhaustive, and my readers are largely aware of all of these items already.  What to do?

1. Get out of debt except for your mortgage provided you have equity in your home
2. Have 3-6 months cash at home.  Many of the black swan events I have cited could result in bank closures / bank holidays and non-functioning ATM machines
3. Get 5% or more of network in physical gold/silver/platinum – purchases are still largely unreportable, and that WILL change
4. If you invest in the stock market, the NASDAQ and S&P should do well for the next 12 months.  Just buy the indexes – don’t stock pick
5. Dip your toe in bitcoin.  Educate yourself on YouTube.
6. Buy land other than your principal residence.
7. Read your Bible or Torah – it will reassure you that God is fully in control even if we don’t understand and it makes no sense.  His ways are not our ways.

John