The gold price is in the early stages of a bull run, UBS said while lifting its price forecasts.
The bank raised its average forecast for 2016 $1,280 per ounce from $1,225 previously. The year-to-date average is currently $1,222; UBS expects it to average $1,240 in the second half.
It also lifted its short-term target to $1,400 from $1,250 previously. The gold price was last at $1,365.75 per ounce, having peaked earlier at a fresh two-year high of $1,371.23. The yellow metal has found support following the Brexit and lack of fresh stimulus measures.
Low/negative real rates, the view that the dollar has peaked against currencies and lingering macro risks are probable drivers of gold’s rise, UBS said in a note on Wednesday.
“We expect the next leg to be driven by an extension of the trend of strategic portfolio allocation into gold from a diverse set of investors. This trend should now deepen, attracting more participants and encouraging those who have been hesitating to get more involved,” it said.
Relatively orderly retracements, which have typically been shallow and brief, indicate strong buying interest, it added.
“This suggests that gold’s floor is likely higher now given an even stronger fundamental argument for holding gold,” the bank said.
